The cryptocurrency market has had one of its most rollercoaster years since Satoshi Nakamoto launched Bitcoin 16 years ago. The market began the year with a bang, with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies racing to new all-time highs. However, the market has been shaky, thanks to various macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, trade wars, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Bitcoin looks poised to end 2025 trading below $100k. However, the major question remains whether 2025 was a bullish year for Bitcoin. Bitcoin hits $124k in October The biggest highlight for Bitcoin in 2025 was hitting the $124k level for the first time in its history. The leading cryptocurrency by market cap began 2025 trading above $93k per coin. By October 7th, Bitcoin’s price hit an all-time high of $124k, taking its total market cap to nearly $2 trillion. However, the market has been on a downward trend since then, hitting a low of $84k on November 22nd. At press time, Bitcoin is trading below $90k per coin. While Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $124k in 2025, if the leading cryptocurrency ends the year trading below the $93k level it began in January, then the year wasn’t a bullish one. Despite that, analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin’s price will record better gains in 2026. According to analysts at 21Shares, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is fading, and the market is now controlled by Structural inflows, macro realignment, and regulatory clarity. “Even though market outcomes can differ materially from expectations, we believe Bitcoin could be positioned to reach new all-time highs in 2026, with broader markets potentially benefiting from improving liquidity and rising institutional participation. Each cycle now delivers less exponential returns, but also far milder corrections, reflecting Bitcoin’s evolution. The halving may remain symbolic, but it is no longer the engine,” the analysts added. Alexis Sirkia, Chairman of Yellow Network, also told Invezz in an email that institutional demand played a key role in Bitcoin’s performance this year. Sirkia added that, “Spot Bitcoin ETFs are a structural shift, not a short-term trend, solidifying BTC’s role as a global store of value. The scarcity model underwrites this institutional demand. However, Bitcoin is a settlement layer, not an application layer; it is not built for high-frequency transactions. Its stability is now underwritten by institutional capital, but the next wave of innovation will come from layers built on top of Satoshi’s vision.” Bitcoin’s bullish factors in 2025 Bitcoin’s volatility in 2025 resulted in the cryptocurrency hitting an all-time high of $124. Here are some factors that contributed to its bullish price action this year. President Trump’s pro-crypto stance One of the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s bullish price action in 2025 was Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections in November 2024. With Trump’s assumption of office, the changes in the US SEC leadership were a big boost to the crypto market, as former chair Gary Gensler took an unfavorable stance on digital asset policies. According to CryptoQuant, the monthly percentage growth of Bitcoin holdings among large investors accelerated from -0.25% on January 14 to +2% on January 17, marking the highest monthly rate since mid-December 2024. The rise in Bitcoin holders pushed the price to a then record-high of $109,588 on Trump’s inauguration day, Trump’s campaign promises were translated into personal stakes in digital assets. The Trump family launched World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a DeFi project built on the Ethereum blockchain and endorsed by his sons (Donald Jr., Eric, and Barron) in September 2024. Investors viewed this move as a strong indication of crypto adoption, with favorable policies expected during Trump’s tenure. According to Arkham Intelligence , WLFI currently holds $6.93 billion in tokens, comprising Ethereum (ETH), Aave (AAVE), Chainlink (LINK), and others. The DeFi project has also launched its own stablecoin, USD1, which is 1:1 backed by the US Dollar (USD). SEC’s crypto task force focuses on regulating the crypto market In January, the US SEC acting Chairman, Mark Uyeda, launched a crypto task force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce to provide a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. Shortly after that, President Trump signed an executive order to support crypto and promote US leadership in digital assets. The bill also seeks to launch a strategic national digital asset stockpile for the US. 2025 also saw the first-ever White House Crypto Summit, where regulation and innovation in the cryptocurrency sector were discussed. Finally, the GENIUS Act was enacted into law in mid-July. This law established a clear federal regulatory framework for stablecoins and their issuers in the United States, resulting in the stablecoin ecosystem hitting a market cap of over $300 billion this year. States rush to launch Bitcoin reserves In addition to the Federal Government’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, many US states joined the race to establish their own Bitcoin reserves. New Hampshire and Arizona led the way, with Texas also joining the movement. Similar bills are pending in other state legislatures, including Massachusetts, Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio. Crypto is now part of the 401(K) Another major win for Bitcoin was the executive order signed by Trump in August, allowing 401(k) investments in cryptocurrency, private equity, and real estate. Institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains strong Another major factor behind Bitcoin’s bullish runs this year was the growing demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs by institutional investors. Data obtained from SoSoValue reveals that US-listed spot ETFs have recorded $22.65 billion in net inflows for the 2025 year-to-date, as of mid-December. However, last month, the ETFs recorded heavy outflows of $3.48 billion, resulting in Bitcoin retesting the $84k level just a few weeks after hitting an all-time high of $124k. Bitcoin ETF Total Assets Under Management (AUM) currently stands at $123 billion, down from the $165.15 billion recorded on October 8. On the corporate side, an increasing number of companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Strategy (MSTR) increased its holdings from 446,000 BTC at the start of 2025 to 671,000 BTC (3.19% of the total supply of 21 million BTC) at the time of writing. Mining companies now account for 12% of public company BTC holdings. Marathon Digital (MARA) holds 53,250 BTC. Bitcoin’s bearish factors in 2025 While Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in 2025, a couple of macroeconomic factors affected its price. Some of these events include; Trade war and tariffs Trump’s first year in office came with tariff policies, sparking trade conflicts with countries such as China, Canada, Mexico, and others. These tariffs triggered a risk-off mood for riskier assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The tariffs resulted in Bitcoin’s price reaching a yearly low of $74,508 on April 7. Geopolitical conflicts The tension in the Middle East also affected Bitcoin’s price in 2025. Earlier this year, the Russia-Ukraine escalations and early Asian tensions between India and Pakistan added volatility in BTC. Furthermore, the renewed conflict in Yemen (Houthi strikes on shipping) disrupted trade routes, and a decline in BTC below $100,000 amid spikes in Oil prices. The Israel-Iran conflict hit its peak in the second quarter of the year as Israel struck Iranian airports and nuclear sites. Iran retaliated with drones and missiles on Israeli and US targets (i.e, Qatar base). All these events contributed to Bitcoin’s volatility in 2025. Bitcoin hit the $124k all-time high in October. However, unless the leading cryptocurrency ends the year trading above $93, 2025 would not be categorized as a bullish year. The post BTC struggling below $100k: Was 2025 a bullish year for Bitcoin? appeared first on Invezz
