Summary Solana trades near $127–$128 as price compresses after a multi-month decline. SOL remains capped below stacked EMAs, with the 50-day near $136 as key resistance. Spot flows show early stabilization, but conviction remains limited. By Parshwa Turakhiya Solana (SOL-USD) is starting the new year locked in an uneasy balance, trading near the $127 to $128 area on Friday after months of steady compression. Price is no longer in free fall, but it has not reclaimed trend control either What is driving the tape is hesitation rather than fear. Selling pressure that dominated November and December has largely burned off, yet buyers remain selective, stepping in on dips instead of chasing upside. That dynamic explains why the opening sessions of 2026 have been defined by sideways trade rather than a sharp rebound. The tone feels defensive but calmer. Volatility has compressed, intraday swings have narrowed, and price has gravitated toward equilibrium. This is the market pausing to reassess after a difficult second half of 2025, not one bracing for immediate capitulation. The tension heading into January is clear. Sellers no longer appear urgent, but buyers are not confident enough to force a breakout. Until one side gains conviction, Solana is likely to remain range-bound, with rallies sold and dips bought selectively rather than aggressively. Daily structure remains defensive despite stabilization On the daily chart, the broader structure still leans bearish. Solana remains below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which are stacked bearishly from roughly $126 through the mid-$160s. The 20-day EMA has flattened near the current price, a sign that downside momentum has slowed. However, the 50-day near $136 and the 100-day around $152 continue to represent heavy overhead supply. Until price can reclaim at least the 50-day on a closing basis, upside attempts are likely to be treated as corrective rather than the start of a new trend. SOL price dynamics (Source: TradingView) Momentum confirms that assessment. The daily RSI is hovering just below 50, reflecting balance rather than strength. Strong reversals typically require RSI to push decisively back above the mid-50s. Solana has not done that yet. The market has neutralized oversold conditions, but it has not flipped into accumulation mode. Short-term structure offers a more constructive, though still cautious, view. On the 30-minute chart, Solana has reclaimed short-term trend support, with Supertrend flipping positive and price holding above SAR dots near $126. This favors dip-buying over selling rallies, but the advances have been choppy and incremental. Each push toward $128-$129 has met supply, suggesting short-term traders are fading range edges rather than positioning for continuation. As long as the price holds above the $125-$126 zone, near-term bias remains mildly constructive. A clean loss of that area would likely invite another sweep toward $122. Flows and positioning hint at stabilization, not conviction On-chain flow data adds important context. Spot netflows have been largely negative for months, reflecting steady distribution during the second half of 2025. That trend has recently eased. The latest readings show modest net inflows of around $3M as price stabilizes near $127. This is not aggressive accumulation, but it does suggest forced selling pressure has cooled. Historically, Solana has required sustained positive inflows to support durable rallies. For now, the data points to stabilization rather than a shift in behavior. Derivatives positioning tells a similar story. Futures open interest has ticked higher even as price moved sideways, sitting near $7.5B. That combination often signals traders rebuilding exposure after a washout, but it also raises the risk of volatility if price breaks out of its range. Long-short ratios show retail accounts leaning modestly long, while top traders remain heavily skewed long by account count. That divergence implies professional traders are positioning for upside, but cautiously, likely hedged and size-managed. Recent liquidation data supports that view, with shorts absorbing most losses during minor rallies while long liquidations remain contained. From a bullish perspective, the roadmap is defined but demanding. Solana needs to hold above $125 and reclaim $130 with authority. A daily close above the $136–$138 zone, aligned with the 50-day EMA, would be the first meaningful signal that trend control is shifting. If that occurs alongside improving spot inflows and expanding volume, a move toward $150 becomes plausible, reframing Solana as a recovery trade rather than a laggard. The bearish scenario remains straightforward. Failure to defend $125 would expose the lower end of the recent range near $122. A breakdown there risks reopening the path toward the psychological $110 level, especially if broader crypto sentiment weakens or Bitcoin rolls over. With the 200-day EMA still far overhead, macro shocks could quickly turn this quiet consolidation into another leg lower. Previously, we noted that Solana’s late-2025 declines were marked by persistent distribution and repeated failures at key moving averages. While selling pressure has eased, that structural backdrop has not yet changed. Confirmation is still missing. For now, Solana is no longer collapsing, but it is not trending either. Until price reclaims higher-time-frame resistance and spot flows turn decisively constructive, this remains a market defined by patience rather than momentum. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . 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