The crypto market is entering a phase marked by rising uncertainty and persistent selling pressure, as major assets struggle to regain bullish momentum. Bitcoin remains capped below the $90,000 level, repeatedly failing to attract enough demand to flip resistance into support. At the same time, Ethereum is experiencing heightened volatility and renewed selling pressure, reflecting broader risk aversion across the market. Sentiment has weakened, and price action suggests that investors are becoming increasingly selective rather than aggressively positioning for upside. However, according to an analysis by XWIN Research Japan, the most important shift currently unfolding in crypto is not visible directly in price charts but in how and where capital is being positioned. On-chain data shows that global liquidity within the crypto ecosystem has not exited the market. Instead, it has changed form. The total supply of ERC20-based stablecoins has expanded to approximately $160 billion, hovering near all-time highs. While this supply briefly contracted during the risk-off environment of 2022, it has since resumed a clear and sustained upward trend. This behavior does not signal capital fleeing crypto. Rather, it reflects funds temporarily de-risking while remaining fully inside the ecosystem. Capital is accumulating in stablecoins as “waiting liquidity,” positioned on the sidelines and ready to be deployed once clearer directional signals emerge. Liquidity has not disappeared; it is simply paused, patient, and awaiting conviction. Japan’s Strategic Position in the Global Capital Shift The analysis also highlights that this shift in global capital behavior carries meaningful implications for Japan’s crypto market. As regulatory clarity improves and tax frameworks gradually become more accommodating, Japan is positioned to benefit from a return of domestic capital that has remained cautious in recent years. Combined with renewed interest from individual investors, this re-entry of sidelined capital could deepen local liquidity, improve price discovery, and strengthen Japan’s role within the broader global crypto landscape. A key element in this transition is the growing relevance of JPYC, Japan’s yen-denominated stablecoin. While US dollar–based stablecoins continue to dominate global crypto flows, a yen-native digital currency offers Japan a strategic differentiator. JPYC is not limited to speculative trading use cases; it is increasingly viewed as an infrastructure layer capable of supporting real economic activity. This includes integration with Web3 services, as well as domestic and cross-border payment applications that align more closely with Japan’s existing financial systems. Looking ahead, the report suggests Japan’s crypto market may gradually shift away from a narrow focus on short-term price speculation. Instead, it could evolve into an ecosystem where capital actively circulates and is deployed for practical use cases. Ultimately, how effectively Japan absorbs and channels this globally mobile liquidity will play a central role in defining the market’s next phase of growth. Crypto Market Tests Structural Support Amid Broad Risk-Off Sentiment The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is showing clear signs of structural stress after failing to sustain momentum above recent highs. As the weekly chart highlights, total market cap has retraced toward the $2.9–$3.0 trillion zone, an area that now acts as a critical inflection point for the broader market. This level coincides with the rising 100-week and 200-week moving averages, reinforcing its importance as medium- to long-term support. The rejection from the $4 trillion region marks a decisive shift in market structure. After an extended expansion phase through 2024 and early 2025, the market has entered a corrective regime characterized by lower highs and weakening upside follow-through. Volume behavior supports this interpretation: selling pressure has increased during down weeks, while rebound attempts have been met with comparatively muted participation. Despite the pullback, the long-term trend has not fully broken. The market remains well above the 2022–2023 base, suggesting this move resembles a consolidation or valuation reset rather than a full structural collapse. However, continued trading below the short-term moving averages indicates that risk appetite remains subdued. For the bullish structure to reassert itself, the total market cap must stabilize above the $3 trillion threshold and reclaim the mid-range resistance near $3.3–$3.5 trillion. Failure to hold current support would expose the market to a deeper retracement toward the $2.4–$2.6 trillion region, where stronger historical demand previously emerged. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
