Summary I am downgrading IBIT to a "Hold" as the medium-term bearish trend for Bitcoin remains firmly intact. My preference for IBIT among Bitcoin ETFs is driven by its status as the "gold standard" for spot cryptocurrency funds, offering superior liquidity and institutional-grade management. This analysis provides a technical breakdown of Bitcoin to identify the specific "zone of interest" for future accumulation. Current risk factors necessitate a patient approach, as I await additional confirmation signals before upgrading my recommendation back to a "Buy." Investment Thesis The purpose of this article is to evaluate the prospects for investing in iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ), considering the current situation in the cryptocurrency market and the emergence of technical factors signaling the potential formation of a global downward trend for Bitcoin. I was wrong to buy early because the price broke through some key support levels, like the lower limit of the global uptrend channel. As a result, now we're seeing a consolidation phase and a potential bearish trend forming. Nevertheless, my overall view on Bitcoin and the ETF that tracks it remains bullish. Given the uncertainty surrounding both the fundamentals and the technical picture for cryptocurrencies at the end of 2025, my recommendation for IBIT has been temporarily downgraded from «Buy» to «Hold.» That said, what I find interesting is buying Bitcoin from the key support zone ($74,400–$78,200). As soon as the price consolidates in this area, you can be sure that I will open a buy position on IBIT. Until that happens, however, I recommend holding. Another situation that could trigger a change in rating to «Buy» is if prices recover above $98,240. Once they stabilize above this level, this will demonstrate to us a potential reversal of the downtrend to an uptrend in the medium term. My previous thesis and main arguments My previous article's main thesis was that Bitcoin prices would recover after the downward correction phase ended. Among the additional factors contributing to the resumption of cryptocurrency growth should be the inflow of funds from institutional investors as a result of improvements in the regulatory framework for the industry, as well as the reduction in the Fed's interest rate, increasing investor appetite for risky assets. The technical picture of Bitcoin charts, though, hasn't shown any signs of an uptrend coming back since prices broke through the key support level of $98,240, staying below it and signaling that the market is still feeling bearish. Overview of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and catalysts for its growth IBIT is the «gold standard» in the world of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. This is the largest ETF managed by BlackRock. With $68.35 billion in assets under management, this is the most liquid Bitcoin fund and a clear leader in its field. Given its low commission of 0.25%, this is a profitable way to invest in spot Bitcoin. This is the same commission as its direct competitor, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF ( FBTC ), and lower than another competitor, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF ( GBTC ) (1.5%). IBIT works by owning physical Bitcoin, meaning that each ETF share is backed by a certain number of tokens stored in a custodial wallet. The main operator for this is Coinbase Custody, where cold storage technology is used to protect assets. An advantage of investing in IBIT for investors is that they can buy essentially the same Bitcoin without having to go through a laborious procedure (starting with registering a crypto wallet or cryptocurrency account on an exchange, ending with storing private keys and withdrawing funds after selling cryptocurrency through operators or exchanges). IBIT's main growth driver, specifically its AUM, has been the inflow of capital from institutional investors, whose numbers among holders of this asset are growing. This can be explained by improvements in the regulatory framework governing the crypto industry and the digital currency market. Over the past 12 months, the IBIT has received investments from 1,511 institutional investors . Meanwhile, it has been removed from the portfolios of 368 institutional investors. The net inflow of large clients was 1,143 institutional investors. This amounted to an inflow of $11.1 billion in monetary terms. Most of the capital inflow occurred in Q4 2024, with institutional investors investing $5.75 billion. For Q3 2025, the inflow amounted to $1.5 billion, and the outflow amounted to $514 million. IBIT Institutional Buying and Selling by Quarter But if we look at the flow of money in and out for all types of investors (both institutional and individuals), it's been negative over the last three months. For example, in the last month, total client outflows amounted to $1.16 billion . On December 17, the figure was $210.68 million. Starting from the last week of October, outflows have been frequent, negatively affecting AUM. Given the decline in the value of Bitcoin and the outflow of investors since my last article on IBIT, it has fallen from $80.28 billion to $68.35 billion (-14.86%). The only five-day period when investment inflows exceeded outflows was in the second week of December. I believe this trend is due to two factors. Firstly, the fall in the price of Bitcoin has increased investor fear, reducing their willingness to invest in cryptocurrencies. Secondly, it is due to the outflow of technology sector stocks, as a result of which many investors are fixing other positions, for example, in Bitcoin ETFs, to maintain the margin requirements of their accounts. IBIT Fund Flows Charts Technical analysis of Bitcoin and its impact on IBIT Due to the fact that IBIT is an ETF with Bitcoin as its underlying asset and its portfolio consists of 100% of this asset, there is a full correlation between IBIT price and the BTC-USD pair. Therefore, to assess the investment attractiveness of the fund under review, attention must be paid to the technical picture of the Bitcoin chart. For this purpose, let us first determine the global trend by analyzing the 1W time frame, then look at the 1D time frame, allowing us to assess the medium-term outlook for IBIT. Bitcoin Technical Analysis on the 1W Timeframe. Source: TradingView The weekly chart shows an upward trend channel that formed earlier. It's been a bullish trend since November 2022, though it's losing steam now that the price has broken through its lower boundary. An additional support was provided by the horizontal line at $98,240, but it could not hold under pressure from sellers. The breakdown not only indicates a strengthening of bearish sentiment in the market but it also signals the potential formation of a global downtrend. The longer the price remains below the support level, the less relevant the previous upward trend channel becomes. But for a bearish trend to fully form in the long term, it's necessary for the price to break through the key support zone ($74,400–$78,200). Until this price zone remains relevant and unbroken, a further decline in Bitcoin will be difficult. Bitcoin Technical Analysis on the 1D Timeframe. Source: TradingView The daily chart shows Bitcoin in a medium-term downtrend, and this remains relevant as the price is still within the trend channel. The trend began at the historical high. Following a breakout of the $98,240 support level, the price is moving towards the previously indicated support zone ($74,400–$78,200). Since November 21, 2025, the price has been trading within a short-term sideways range. Due to this, an additional support zone has formed ($80,500–$83,800). In conclusion, to continue the downward trend, the sellers need to overcome two different support zones at once: one on the daily chart and the other on the weekly chart. Given this, I believe that the price support zone ($74,400–$78,200) is somewhat protected. That means if the price falls to this level, it is less likely to break below it. Consequently, I consider this support level to be a potential area of interest for opening positions on Bitcoin and IBIT. When it is reached, I will change my rating from «Hold» to «Buy». Risks of the investment thesis In assessing the risks of an investment idea, it is important to consider the factors that will keep the price of Bitcoin under pressure from sellers. When analyzing technical factors, I believe that the key risk is a potential breakout of the support zone ($74,400–$78,200). If this happens, a global bearish trend is likely to form, in which case the only recommendation would be to «Sell.» In addition, we should continue to monitor developments surrounding Strategy Inc. ( MSTR ). The company's activities were one of the reasons for Bitcoin's rise to historic highs. But the financial policy of placing convertible bonds to buy cryptocurrency is becoming a powder keg, and an explosion could lead to a record price crash. As of March 2025, its debt is $8.22 billion . Strategy (MicroStrategy) - Total debt on balance sheet (from 1998 to 2025) This scenario is risky for IBIT because if Bitcoin's price drops a lot, MSTR's shares will stay under pressure. Also, its net asset value will go down proportionally, so paying off its debts could lead to financial losses. In order to compensate for this, the same MSTR will need to sell its Bitcoin reserves. And this, again, will provoke an additional wave of cryptocurrency sell-offs. The mere mention of possible sales of Bitcoin from MicroStrategy's reserves leads to increased market volatility. If this turns out to be more than just rumors and speculation but actual practice, the potential impact of this negative event cannot be underestimated. Then the price of Bitcoin could fall even further, resulting in IBIT's profitability proportionally falling into the loss zone. Conclusion Based on the results of my fundamental and technical analysis, my recommendation is to hold IBIT shares and spot Bitcoin assets. This recommendation is based solely on the fact that the risks of a decline in cryptocurrency prices remain, with the potential zone of interest for opening purchases located below. Therefore, my recommendation to «Hold» is, in a way, an expression of a deferred position (Buy Limit) on IBIT as soon as the spot price of Bitcoin reaches the support price zone ($74,400–$78,200).
