Summary Ethereum holds above $3,100 after rebounding from December lows near $2,900. Price remains capped below all major moving averages, keeping the trend corrective. Weak spot inflows and declining leverage limit upside follow-through. By Jainam Mehta Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) is trading just above the $3,100 handle on Friday as January unfolds, holding a fragile recovery after a bruising fourth quarter that forced a reset in positioning across the crypto market. The immediate story is stabilization rather than strength. ETH-USD has rebounded from December’s dip below $2,900, but price action remains capped beneath a dense band of technical resistance. Oversold conditions have eased, yet spot demand and momentum continue to lag, keeping the market in repair mode rather than a renewed expansion phase. The rebound has reduced downside pressure, but conviction is still missing. Ethereum continues to struggle whenever the price approaches key resistance levels, reinforcing the idea that the market is digesting losses rather than building a fresh base for trend continuation. Until buyers prove willing to absorb supply above moving-average resistance, ETH-USD remains a range-bound asset rather than a leadership candidate. Technical structure remains under repair On the daily chart, Ethereum remains structurally corrective. The rally that peaked above $4,800 in late 2025 has given way to a sequence of lower highs, and price continues to trade below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs. The 20-day EMA near $3,080 has flattened, while the 50-day EMA around $3,127 still slopes lower. Above that, the 100-day EMA near $3,300 and the 200-day EMA around $3,350 form a heavy resistance band that has capped every rebound since November. ETH-USD price dynamics (Source: TradingView) Momentum supports the cautious view. The daily RSI has recovered into the low-50 after spending much of December near oversold territory. That recovery signals relief, not trend confirmation. In prior cycles, Ethereum’s durable rallies have required RSI to hold above 60 for sustained periods. Volume behavior reinforces this message. The bounce from December lows arrived without a meaningful expansion in spot volume, pointing to short covering and tactical dip buying rather than conviction-led accumulation. Lower time frames reflect the same balance. On the 30-minute chart, ETH-USD has transitioned into a choppy consolidation between roughly $3,070 and $3,150. Supertrend has flipped marginally supportive near $3,070, while parabolic SAR dots trail price from below, indicating short-term stabilization. Still, each push into the $3,160-3,180 area has been met with quick selling, keeping the price confined to a rotation rather than an extension. Flows and leverage define near-term risk Spot flow data remains a consistent headwind. Exchange netflows continue to print modest outflows rather than sustained inflows, with the latest session showing roughly $5 million in net spot selling. In isolation, that figure is small, but in context it matters. Since October, Ethereum rallies have repeatedly coincided with capital leaving exchanges rather than entering. Historically, ETH-USD has struggled to trend higher without spot accumulation, and that pattern remains unchanged. Derivatives positioning adds complexity. Open interest has eased toward the $40 billion area, down from late-2025 highs, signaling that leverage is being trimmed rather than rebuilt. Long-to-short ratios remain tilted toward longs, particularly among retail participants, while recent liquidation data shows shorts absorbing most of the pressure. This creates asymmetric risk. A confirmed breakout could trigger short covering, but a breakdown below support risks flushing crowded long positions. Levels that determine the next phase The bullish scenario depends on structural confirmation. Ethereum needs a decisive daily close above the $3,200-3,300 zone, starting with acceptance above the 50-day EMA and followed by a reclaim of the 100-day EMA. If that occurs alongside expanding spot inflows and RSI holding above 60, ETH-USD could extend toward $3,500, with $3,800 emerging as a secondary objective where prior breakdowns converge. The bearish case remains active while ETH-USD trades below those averages. Failure to hold $3,070 would refocus attention on the $2,950-2,900 support zone that defined December’s base. A clean break below that region would expose downside toward $2,700, particularly if broader market sentiment weakens or Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) loses range support. Given the still-elevated leverage profile, downside moves could accelerate quickly. Broader market context continues to shape Ethereum’s behavior. Bitcoin remains range-bound, and liquidity across crypto is selective rather than expansive. Ethereum is no longer leading the market; it is responding to it. Until leadership rotates back toward ETH-USD, rallies are likely to remain corrective. For short-term traders, disciplined range strategies dominate. Buying near $3,050-3,080 with tight risk or fading strength into $3,180-3,220 aligns with the current structure. For longer-term participants, patience remains the trade. Ethereum needs to reclaim key moving averages and show sustained spot accumulation before a directional long becomes compelling. As previously discussed, Ethereum’s late-2025 decline followed the exhaustion of a multi-month rally and a broader shift toward capital concentration and risk selectivity across crypto markets. That backdrop remains intact. The current stabilization reflects repair rather than renewal, reinforcing the view that ETH-USD is consolidating until accumulation returns and structural resistance is reclaimed. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post
