Summary Ethereum rebounded above $3,050 but remains below all major declining EMAs. Daily RSI near 50 signals momentum stabilization, not a confirmed trend reversal. Spot net outflows of about $47.6 million indicate supply removal without strong accumulation. By Jainam Mehta Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) is trading near $3,020 on December 29 after a sharp short-term expansion briefly pushed price above $3,050 before momentum stalled. The move marks Ethereum’s most aggressive upside attempt in weeks, yet the broader technical context remains decisive. ETH is still operating within a corrective regime that has defined the second half of 2025, following its failure to sustain levels above $4,000 earlier in the year. The latest rally reflects improving participation, but not a confirmed trend reversal. Breakout shifts tone but not the dominant trend On the daily chart, Ethereum remains structurally capped beneath its declining 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs. The 50-day EMA near $3,134 and the 200-day EMA closer to $3,375 continue to act as heavy overhead supply, reinforcing the bearish-to-neutral bias that has persisted since October. Every recovery attempt over the past two months has failed below this declining EMA cluster, confirming that sellers still control the higher-timeframe structure. ETH price dynamics (Source: TradingView) What has changed is the character of price action. After weeks of persistent weakness through November and early December, ETH stabilized above the $2,900-$2,950 zone and printed a clear higher low. Daily RSI has recovered to the 50 area, a level that often marks the dividing line between trend continuation and trend transition. Momentum is no longer bearish, but it has not yet expanded into bullish territory. This neutralization phase suggests the market is reassessing value rather than continuing active distribution. The recent push higher was driven by a clean technical break on lower timeframes. On the 30-minute chart, Ethereum broke out of a multi-session consolidation near $2,950, flipping Supertrend to the upside and forcing short positions to cover. Price surged rapidly toward $3,050 before cooling, with Parabolic SAR now trailing just below price. The pullback toward $3,020 has been controlled, indicating buyers are defending the breakout zone rather than exiting aggressively. Flows and leverage highlight fragile conviction Spot flow data adds an important layer of realism to the recovery narrative. Despite higher prices, Ethereum continues to record persistent net outflows from exchanges, with the latest daily figure near $47.6M in negative netflow. These outflows suggest ETH is being withdrawn into longer-term custody rather than recycled aggressively on exchanges. Historically, sustained outflows during stabilization phases tend to support medium-term price floors, even if they do not immediately drive upside acceleration. Derivatives markets show heightened activity, but also rising risk. Futures trading volume has more than doubled during the recent move, while open interest has climbed to roughly $39.6B. Options volume has expanded sharply, signaling that traders are positioning for larger price swings ahead rather than expressing high-conviction directional bets. Long-to-short ratios are modestly tilted toward longs, particularly among top traders, yet liquidation data shows that both sides have been punished during recent volatility. This balance of pain underscores how fragile conviction remains at current levels. Structurally, Ethereum is now caught between two decisive zones. On the downside, the $2,950-$2,900 area has become a critical demand shelf. A clean loss of this zone would likely unwind the recent breakout and reopen downside toward $2,750, reasserting the broader corrective trend. On the upside, the $3,100-$3,150 region represents the first serious test for bulls. This area aligns with the falling 50-day EMA and multiple prior rejection points. A daily close above it would mark the first meaningful improvement in trend structure since October and shift attention toward the $3,350-$3,400 region. Market outlook As previously discussed in recent Ethereum market updates, ETH has spent much of the past two months transitioning from active decline into balance. The current move fits that framework. The market has progressed from decay to stabilization, and now to early probing higher. However, it has not yet demonstrated the strength required to reclaim leadership or invalidate the broader corrective structure. For now, Ethereum is not signaling capitulation, but it is also not confirming a new uptrend. The next several sessions are likely to be decisive. Acceptance above $3,150 would suggest the corrective phase is ending, while a failure to hold $2,950 would confirm that the latest rally was another countertrend move. Until that resolution occurs, Ethereum remains in a tense equilibrium, with fading bearish momentum offset by still-unproven bullish resolve. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post
