Summary Ethereum is in an accumulation phase, with supply shifting to long-term holders, supporting a bullish medium- to long-term thesis. On-chain metrics show rising balances and realized prices at accumulation addresses, indicating increasing conviction and a strong market floor near current levels. Derivatives data reveal aggressive selling and rebuilding leverage, suggesting short-term volatility but potential for sharp upward moves if spot demand improves. I recommend tactical buying on small dips, allocating 1% of the portfolio, as decreasing exchange supply and growing accumulation could accelerate price recovery. Introduction & Thesis Tradingview The price of Ethereum (ETH-USD) is currently 35% below its all-time high, recorded on August 24, 2025. In this range, the asset has been moving between $2,600 and $4,900, currently standing at levels close to $3,100. This correction from ATH has been mainly due to a decline in the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market, largely caused by liquidations in Bitcoin (the dominant asset), which have directly influenced a decline in the price of the entire digital asset market, starting with Ethereum. It can be seen in this commentary that, from the bottom of this range (USD 2,600), there has been a 17% price increase to current price levels (USD 3,100). As we will see below, on-chain metrics are supporting this narrative, placing Ethereum in an accumulation phase, in which supply is shifting towards holders with greater conviction, reducing the amount of ETH available for immediate sale and improving the bullish skew of the next impulse. That is why my thesis is bullish for the medium to long term, and I recommend buying the asset when there are small drops in its price. Network Activity Crypto Quant By analyzing the Balance on the Accumulation Addresses metric, we can see part of the core of the thesis put forward. While the price loses traction and falls, since August 2025, the blue line (total_balance) continues to rise uninterrupted. This situation is often interpreted as a transfer of supply to more patient hands, since the more Ether this cohort accumulates, the less Ethereum will be left for sale on the market and the more likely it is that a shock will occur on the supply side. Looking ahead, if the slope of the total balance remains constant or increases, it means that the market will build an increasingly solid base of “patient” investors, which will cause the marginal seller to run out of liquid assets to sell. These types of portfolios have a historical performance that is more similar to a “buy and hold” profile than that of a trader. One of their main characteristics is that they tend to increase their balance over time, buying ETH on a recurring basis and, in general, not showing a pattern of frequent sales. Crypto Quant Moving on to the Realized Price for Accumulation Addresses chart, we can see how this metric adds the nuance of the realized price at which addresses accumulating Ethereum are currently buying. As we can see, the yellow line has been steadily rising over the last 5 years, which means that these investors are raising their average purchase price, approaching the spot price, suggesting greater conviction in the purchases made by this group. Looking ahead, this is relevant because when the spot price moves around the realized price, the market tends to enter a more mechanical support regime, establishing the realized price as a strong market floor. Crypto Quant I consider the above metric, Inflows into Accumulation Addresses, to be a kind of momentum indicator for the price: the more inflows there are, the better the asset price will perform in the future. In the most recent period, we can see how there have been a large number of inflows to accumulation addresses, which indicates to me that we may be in the early stages of accumulation. This idea is consistent with what we discussed in the first metric, where we said that we see a dynamic change in supply, which has been shifting from sellers to accumulation addresses. With this metric, we can confirm that statement with data. Crypto Quant To conclude this section, let's look at the Coinbase Premium Index. This chart shows us that although the above metrics reinforce our buy thesis, the price may not move in the direction we want immediately, as the Coinbase premium index is still in negative territory. While it is true that it has risen sharply in recent weeks, it is still unable to dominate the marginal bid. The good news is that, precisely for this reason, the indicator's shift toward positive levels usually serves as a confirmation signal. If the premium ends up normalizing while accumulation balances continue to grow, a scenario may arise where the price adjustment could be faster due to the compression of supply captured by accumulation addresses. Derivatives Overlay Crypto Quant If we analyze the asset from the perspective of the derivatives market, we can draw the following conclusions. The Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / OI 24H indicator shows us that December has been dominated by aggressive selling (CVD in very negative red after the mid-December drop), accompanied by open interest that has rebounded somewhat strongly. This environment indicates to me that we are in a situation where leverage is being rebuilt, which increases the likelihood of violent movements in the asset's price. Taking the thesis defended in this article, we can say that the most interesting scenario in this case is that any improvement in the bid spot will force speculators to close their short positions, and that will become another bullish catalyst for the asset. This proposed overlay also justifies my approach of buying on dips, because the current structure invites short-term volatility rather than a clear trend at the moment. Crypto Quant At the same time, looking at Binance's Taker Buy Sell Ratio, we can see that for much of the period analyzed, the ratio has been below 1. This means that the momentum in the futures market has been on the seller's side. Currently, the ratio has increased, exceeding the level of 1, which tells me that if it continues like this and remains at that level, it is quite likely that we will see the continuation of an upward trend that will take us back to levels close to historical highs. Crypto Quant Finally, looking at the Exchange Supply Ratio of Binance, which is one of the most relevant exchanges in the entire crypto landscape, we see that the ratio itself is in a downward phase, remaining at relatively low levels. This suggests that there is currently less Ethereum available for immediate sale on this exchange. As the inventory available for sale decreases, the likelihood of the price falling again decreases. If we add to this the fact that accumulation addresses continue to absorb part of the existing supply, the market may react more sharply to any upturn in demand for the asset. For this reason, I recommend buying tactically on small dips, allocating 1% of your portfolio to an asset of this type. Thank you for reading.
