Summary The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) offers direct Bitcoin exposure but carries a high 1.50% expense ratio versus peers. I recommend avoiding GBTC in favor of lower-cost alternatives like IBIT for Bitcoin ETF exposure. Current accumulation trends and exhausted long-term holder selling suggest a prudent 1–2% portfolio allocation at current Bitcoin levels. Rising derivatives leverage increases volatility risk, supporting only a modest allocation to avoid shocks from potential liquidations. Intro & Thesis The investment manager Grayscale markets several interesting products within the digital asset industry. In today's article, I will focus on one of its flagship products: the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF ( GBTC ). This ETF is an exchange-traded fund that offers direct exposure to the spot price of Bitcoin, removing the risk of self-custody for investors. This is because Grayscale itself operates with authorized custodians, who perform this custodial function within their security vaults. When an investor buys the GBTC ETF, what they are doing is buying shares in a fund that acquires Bitcoin. That is its objective: to passively replicate the performance of the spot price of Bitcoin, after deducting the fees charged by the fund itself for exposure to the asset. From my point of view, today's thesis is to buy the ETF, supported by the evolution of holder behavior and the positioning of the derivatives market. Bitcoin set its all-time high (ATH) in October 2025, at a level close to $126,000. After that, the price of the asset corrected to around $84,000, defending it strongly and establishing a current price close to $93,000, marking an approximate drop of 29% from its all-time high. In my opinion, this reduces the entry risk, as we have passed a moment of euphoria and are currently experiencing a moment of fear in the market. Therefore, seeing the behavior indicators stabilizing and beginning to rebound from low levels, I interpret that we are in a market consolidation environment. That said, when we look at leverage in the derivatives market, we can see a situation of relative fragility, so I recommend buying in stages. I suggest making an initial partial purchase of 1–2% of the portfolio and only adding to it if the improvement in the indicators analyzed is confirmed. The use of GBTC as the main ticker in the article is motivated by the fact that it was the first product to be exposed to the spot price of Bitcoin, initially designed to function as a trust. With the wave of ETF approvals, the GBTC product transitioned to an ETP product, aligning itself with other products such as IBIT (Blackrock) or ARKB (Ark Invest) in terms of behavior and characteristics. In the ETF Overview section, we will see how these products compare in terms of costs, which is a relevant variable when choosing an ETF. ETF Overview Fund Website In the previous image we can observe the comparison in terms of returns of the ETF analyzed (differentiated between NAV and market price) and its benchmark, which is the Bitcoin asset. At 1 month the market price has fallen by 17.45% against 16.89% of the benchmark, and 17.00% of the NAV. This indicates that the directional tracking error is positive, since it replicates the return on the asset well, although it is negative and also indicates that the beta of the asset can play in favor of the investor if the rebound occurs that we have discussed in the previous section. We can also see, as in the long term there is a certain friction between the price of the ETF and its NAV (43.36% (NAV) and 42.02% (price)), which is magnified over time. Seeking Alpha Next, we compare several ETFs that have the same objective (search for Bitcoin exposure), such as GBTC, IBIT, BITB, FBTC or ARKB. As can be seen in the picture, GBTC has an expense ratio of 1.50%, which is far from the expense ratio of the other ETFs, which in turn have an associated cost in the range of 0.20 to 0.25% per year. That is why, at a cost level, the ETF analyzed is not the most suitable fund to replicate the Bitcoin asset, so I would recommend buying one of the alternatives proposed here, such as IBIT, which is the ETF of Blackrock. Having cheaper alternatives, I completely rule out exposing myself to Bitcoin through the GBTC ETF. Behaviour Status Node Analytica When establishing our thesis, we will focus on analyzing the behavior of different market players. In the image above, we can see the Accumulation Trend Score metric, which measures the level of Bitcoin accumulation by the different holders participating in it. In the period after the 2025 high, we can see recurring episodes of the score rebounding in areas of consolidation, which suggests to me that there is an absorption of supply. For the thesis, this is key because it supports the idea that the movement from 126k to 84k has not led to a persistent distribution regime. On the contrary, the signal has begun to behave as in transition phases where the market is replacing impulsive sales with more patient purchases. In this context, it makes sense for me to make a partial entry (1–2% of portfolio), as it is justified as positioning in an area where marginal demand is reappearing, without assuming that the absolute minimum has already been confirmed. Node Analytica If we look at the same indicator, broken down, analyzing the historical behavior of the cohorts, we can draw the following conclusions. Visually, we can see that the colored bands do not move in unison. There are some periods where small cohorts show more alternation (more mixed colors), while in certain sections there are more continuous blocks of intense blue in other cohorts, which is usually interpreted as episodes of more persistent accumulation. Currently, we can see how the trend is reversing in some cohorts and, as a result, Bitcoin is beginning to accumulate (see the 1k - 10k and +10k cohorts). This situation increases the possibility of a price rebound in the medium term and may therefore confirm the thesis put forward in this article. checkonchain The chart above measures the net supply flow of long-term holders, where the red bars refer to episodes of distribution (reduction in exposure) and the blue bars refer to accumulation (increase in exposure). The image shows a prolonged phase dominated by red, with a particularly intense episode of selling towards the end of the period, coinciding with a weak price environment. After this episode, we can see how the indicator has been approaching a neutral situation, which is usually interpreted as an exhaustion of structural selling pressure. This does not mean that there will be a price rebound, but it does partially support my proposal for a partial purchase in the current zone, since if you buy, you would not be buying on FOMO, but at a point where the data suggests that long-term selling may have done much of the work, and where the next leg will depend more on confirmations (derivatives) than on a continued outflow of LTH supply. Derivatives Perspectives checkonchain To recap and conclude my presentation, we will now analyze Bitcoin's derivatives leverage ratio. Looking ahead, this chart helps us frame the “how” and ‘when’ of the proposed thesis, not just the “why.” We can see how the leverage ratio (derivatives leverage relative to capitalization) has been on an upward trend since 2023, accelerating particularly in 2024 and 2025, with growth also accompanying open interest. At this point, we can say that even if the spot price of the asset re-enters an accumulation phase, the market is based on derivatives that have grown significantly, which increases the likelihood that the next stage will follow a “ladder” pattern, with price advances followed by violent leverage resets (liquidations), before resuming the aforementioned trend. That is why I only recommend an allocation of 1-2% of the portfolio, to avoid any shocks caused by the derivatives market. Thank you for reading.
